ADVANCEMENT OF THE SCIENCE
Open Access
From Air Quality to Public Safety: Rethinking Crime Dynamics and Social Costs of Pollution in the United States
Sadiq Melhim, MA Department of Economics, University of Waterloo, Canada International Economics Department, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, Qatar
limits, primarily due to high levels of fine par- ticulate matter (PM 2.5 ). These fine particles, measuring <2.5 micrometers in diameter, can penetrate deep into the respiratory system and enter systemic circulation, affecting multiple organ systems, including the brain (Qi et al., 2022). Decades of research findings have firmly established the respiratory and cardio- vascular adverse effects of PM 2.5 exposure, and recent interdisciplinary investigations have extended the scope of concern to include neurocognitive (Pham & Chiew, 2023), psy- chological (Sass et al., 2017), and behavioral (Huang et al., 2023) outcomes. Research suggests that air pollution acts as a chronic stressor capable of influencing psychological states (Dimitrov-Discher et al., 2022; Reuben et al., 2022). Repeated exposure to PM 2.5 has been linked to heightened irrita- bility (Trombley, 2023), impaired judgment (Chauhan et al., 2025), and increased aggres- sion (Kao et al., 2025). Several epidemiological analyses have identified temporal correlations between air pollution spikes and surges in urban crime rates, particularly violent offenses (Daoud et al., 2026; Kuo & Putra, 2021). For instance, experimental and ecological studies have demonstrated that PM 2.5 expo- sure might result in diminished self-control and elevate impulsive behavior via inflam- matory and oxidative pathways affecting neural circuitry (Rentschler & Kodavanti, 2024). Similarly, rising suicide rates in pol- luted cities have drawn attention to air pollu- tion as a potential contributor to depressive and self-harming behavior (Heo et al., 2021). From a behavioral science perspective, these outcomes can be interpreted through the stress–aggression hypothesis, which pos- its that environmental stressors, whether
Abstract This study examines the relationship between fine particulate matter air pollution (PM 2.5 ), socioeconomic conditions, and crime rates using a dataset of 230 observations from 10 highly polluted U.S. states (2000–2022). Moving beyond aggregated analyses, this study applies a panel data approach to capture within-state dynamics often overlooked in prior research. Annual state-level data on PM 2.5 concentrations, crime rates, poverty, and unemployment were analyzed using pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) and fixed effects models, with state-clustered standard errors. Although pooled results showed no significant association between PM 2.5 and crime, the inclusion of state-and-year fixed effects reveals a statistically signifi- cant positive relationship. Specifically, a 1 µg/m³ increase in PM 2.5 is associ- ated with approximately 5 additional crimes per 100,000 population within states. Poverty remains insignificant, whereas higher unemployment rates show a statistically significant association with lower crime rates. The preferred model explains substantial within-state variation ( R 2 = .71), underscoring the importance of accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. These findings highlight how model specification shapes inference and sug- gest that short-term increases in air pollution can influence social behavior. Although the results of this study cannot establish causality, the findings do contribute novel evidence linking environmental exposure to crime dynamics, with implications for integrated environmental and public policy. Keywords: fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), crime rates, environmental stress- ors, panel data analysis, fixed effects models
Introduction Air pollution represents one of the most per- vasive environmental threats to global health and sustainable development (Isaifan, 2023;
Mahmoud et al., 2023). The World Health Organization (WHO, 2022) estimates that more than 90% of the world’s population lives in areas exceeding WHO air-quality guideline
18
Volume 89 • Number 3
https://doi.org/10.70387/001c.171786
Powered by FlippingBook